Probability Theory

Measure Theoretic Development

Definition

We want a measure that has the following properties

  1. Respects lengths of intervals meaning that μ(p[a,b])=ba,0ab1
  2. it should satisfy countable additivity i.e
μ(ci=1Ai)=i=1μ(Ai)
  1. It should be translation invariant meaning that if A[0,1] and we define Ax=A+x to be A shifted rightward b x then m(A)=μ(Ax)

unfortunately such a definition is not well defined for all subsets. for example

Proposition

There is no function μ:P([0,1])[0,1] that satisfies all three of the properties we want in a measure

Proof.
Construct a vitali set...

With this we now make a quick recap of some definitions from measure theory

Definition

a σ-algebra of sets is a collection of subsets in Rd that is closed under countable unions, intersections and complements

Definition

A measure space is a triple (Ω,F,μ) satisfying the following axioms:

  • Ω, the state space or outcome space, is a nonempty set.
  • F, a set of measurable subsets or events, is a σ-field or σ-algebra over Ω (those terms will be used interchangeably). In other words, F is a nonempty collection of subsets of Ω which is closed under complementation and countable union, so if AF, then Ac=ΩA is also in F, and if AiF, then i=1Ai is also in F.
  • μ, the measure, is a map F[0,] which is not infinite everywhere and is countably additive. In other words, if AiF are disjoint, then μ(i=1Ai)=i=1μ(Ai).
Definition

A measure μ is a probability measure (which we will denote P) if μ(Ω)=1.

Proposition

Given a measure space (Ω,F,μ), the following must hold:

  1. and Ω are in F,
  2. μ()=0,
  3. (continuity from below) if AiA – that is, A1A2 and A=i=1Ai – then μ(Ai)μ(A),
  4. (continuity from above) if AiA – that is, A1A2 and A=i=1Ai – and also μ(A1)<, then
    μ(Ai)μ(A),
  5. for any Ω, F={,Ω} is a valid σ-field, and so is P(Ω).
Remark

we note that μ(Ai)μ(A) or μ(Ai)μ(A) is basically saying limiμ(Ai)=μ(A).

Proof. because F is nonempty(as Ω is non empty) there is some event A in F. Then AcF so AAc=Ω must be in F by definition sigma field above. Consequently so must Ωc for the same reason. For (2) by definition of measurable set, there must contain some A such that μ(A)< so by addivity we have

μ(A)=μ(A)=μ(A)+μ()

which implies μ()=0. For (3) just refer back to Measure Theory

Definition

The Borel σ-field BR is the smallest σ-field over R that contains I, the set of all open intervals on R.

B=σ(I),I={(a,b]R:ab}.

We now seek to define a lebesgue measure on [0,1]. To this end we define

F(x)=μ((0,x])

From the properties of measures we've been studying, we can notice the following properties of F:
• For any x1>x2, we have μ((0,x1])μ((0,x2])F(x1)F(x2), so F must be monotone.
• If xnx, then the intervals (0,xn](0,x], meaning μ((0,xn])μ((0,x]) by continuity from above. Thus, we also have F(xn)F(x) – in other words, F is right-continuous.

Formally we define F(x) by

Definition

A Stieltjes measure function on R is a function F:RR which is non decreasing and right continuous

Theorem

(Lebesgue-Stieltjes):
For any Stieltjes measure function F, there is a unique measure μ=μF on (R,BR) satisfying μ((a,b])=F(b)F(a) for all a,bR.

Proposition

Our measure μ=μF has the following properties on A:

  1. μ is monotone and finitely additive over A, meaning that for any disjoint A1,,AnA, μ(iAi)=i=1nμ(Ai).
  2. μ is finitely subadditive over A, meaning that for any A1,,AnA, μ(iAi)i=1nμ(Ai).
  3. μ is countably subadditive over I: if A,AiI (where i ranges over the positive integers) and AiAi, then μ(A)iμ(Ai).
  4. μ is countably additive on A.

systems

Definition

A π-system P on a set Ω is a nonempty collection of subsets of Ω, such that for any A,BP, ABP.

Definition

  • A λ-system L on a set Ω is a collection of subsets of Ω satisfying the following conditions:
  • ΩL.
  • For any A,BL where BA, ABL.
  • If we have a sequence AnL, and AnA, then AL.

Proposition

If a λ-system L is also a π-system, then L is a σ-algebra.

Theorem

(Dynkin's πλ theorem)
If P is a π-system, L is a λ-system, and PL, then σ(P)L.